Table 8 Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) and Brier scores (BrSs) for different prediction models evaluated in eyes with baseline severity score >3
AREDSAREDS2
Modelac-indexbBrSc (4 yr)BrS (10 yr)IBrSd (up to 4 yr)IBrS (up to 10 yr)c-indexBrS (4 yr)IBrS (up to 4 yr)
A0.560.1700.2380.0620.1520.610.1860.076
B0.630.1640.2190.0610.1440.620.1840.076
C0.730.1360.1780.0540.1180.710.1650.070
D0.740.1340.1740.0530.1170.720.1600.069
E0.750.1340.1710.0530.1150.730.1590.069
  • a Predictors for each model are given in Table 6.

  • b In AREDS, the c-index values were computed based on bootstrapped samples (average over 50 times).

  • c In AREDS, the Brier scores were computed based on fivefold cross-validation.

  • d iBrS: integrated Brier score.