Whole data analysis | 200 CVs | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Model | Covariates^{a} | Oncotype DX | Whole-genome gene expression (WGGE) | Estimated variance (90% posterior confidence region) | Log likelihood^{b} | Effective number of parameters (pD) | Deviance information criteria (DIC) | Average CV-AUC, all luminals^{c} | AUC model in column > AUC model in row, all luminals^{d} | Average CV-AUC, lymph node negative^{c} | AUC model in column > AUC model in row, lymph node negative^{d} | |||

Oncotype DX | Whole-genome gene expression | M10 | M11 | M10 | M11 | |||||||||

M9 (COV) | X | — | — | −59.7 | 4.4 | 123.7 | 0.703 (0.026)^{e} | 0.96 | >0.99 | 0.689 (0.052)^{e} | 0.43 | 0.99 | ||

M10 (COV + ONCO) | X | X | 0.027 (0.003; 0.056) | — | −45.3 | 4.2 | 94.9 | 0.725 (0.033)^{f} | — | 0.99 | 0.685 (0.055)^{e} | — | >0.99 | |

M11 (COV + WGGE) | X | X | — | 0.439 (0.083; 0.931) | −37.7 | 9.2 | 84.6 | 0.774 (0.031)^{g} | — | — | 0.755 (0.039)^{f} | — | — |

a Age and race (African American, Y/N).

b Estimated posterior mean of the log likelihood.

c Average over 200 tenfold CVs.

d Proportion of times that the model in column had AUC > the model in row (in 200 tenfold CVs).

e,f,g The same letter indicates that the models are no different (empirical

*P*< 0.05).