Table 1 Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis of the two best fitting models of species-wide demographic history in P. balsamifera
Standard neutral modelBottleneck model
% of retained simulations42.257.2
Theta (πs) × 10−34.79 (4.34–5.30)4.83 (4.10–6.12)
Recombination (ρs) × 103−0.66 (0.028–1.86)1.11 (0.078–1.89)
Current population size32,000 (28,900–35,300)32,200 (27,300–40,800)
Time to size changea639,000 (503,000–3,320,000)
Size change population size36,600 (7,100–50,500)
Time to ancestral population11,740,000 (637,000–4,490,000)
Ancestral population size148,000 (76,700–194,000)
  • A third model of exponential growth provided a poor fit to the observed data (0.6% of retained simulations), and so was not included for parameter estimation.

  • a Time estimates were converted from coalescent units (= 4N0 generations) to absolute time (in years), assuming a neutral mutation rate per site per year of 2.5 × 10−9 (Tuskan et al. 2006).