Constant population^{b} | Variable population^{c} | With migration (initial peak)^{d} | With migration (high point)^{d} | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Comparison | t | t (yr)^{e} | t | t (yr)^{e} | t | t (yr)^{e} | t | t (yr)^{e} |

P. cyanea × P. amoena | ||||||||

MLE^{a} | 0.2105 | 138,000 | 0.207 | 136,000 | 0.211 | 138,000 | 0.211 | 138,000 |

90% HPD^{a} | 0.0375–0.4345 | 25,000–286,000 | 0.037–0.443 | 24,000–291,000 | 0.033–0.445 | 21,700–292,000 | 0.033–0.445 | 21,700–292,000 |

P. caerulea × P. amoena | ||||||||

MLE^{a} | 0.7185 | 486,000 | 0.4825 | 327,000 | 0.1825 | 103,000 | 4.9975 | 3,380,000 |

90% HPD^{a} | 0.3555–1.3125 | 241,000–888,000 | 0.2475–1.5325 | 167,000–1,037,000 | NA^{f} | NA^{f} | NA^{f} | NA^{f} |

P. caerulea × P. cyanea | ||||||||

MLE^{a} | 0.537 | 363,000 | 0.4935 | 334,000 | 0.0735 | 49,700 | 4.9975 | 3,380,000 |

90% HPD^{a} | 0.177–1.091 | 120,000–738,000 | 0.1505–1.3265 | 102,000–898,000 | NA^{f} | NA^{f} | NA^{f} | NA^{f} |

↵

*a*MLEs are the locations of the peaks of the posterior probabilities in Figure 4; HPDs are the values along the*x*-axes in Figure 4 that contain 90% of the area of the histograms.↵

*b*Divergence time estimates for IM runs under the constant population size model.↵

*c*Divergence time estimates for IM runs under the variable population-size model, which includes the population splitting parameter*s.*↵

*d*Divergence time estimates for IM runs under constant population-size model while allowing for migration. In all comparisons (except*P. cyanea*×*P. amoena*) there was an initial peak and a nonconverging, nonzero tail (high point). See Figure 4.↵

*e*Mutation scaled estimates of divergence time (*t*) were translated into years using a mutation rate of 3.6 × 10^{−9}substitutions/site/year (Axelsson*et al.*2004).↵

*f*These runs failed to converge so 90% HPDs are not presented.