Performance of the simple single-hotspot model, for data sets simulated under various demographic scenarios, with a hotspot of magnitude λ = 10 and with no hotspot (i.e., λ = 1)

λ = 10λ = 1
PowerMed Embedded Image Med |Err|Type I errorMed Embedded Image Med |Err|
All sites0.9013.
Common sites (f > 0.1)0.8116.570.
Island (mixed)0.9211.350.180.070.900.33
Island (single)0.9410.
Expansion (t = 500)0.9424.290.400.131.410.56
Expansion (t = 5000)0.5311.660.360.071.230.70

In each case, the first column shows the proportion of “significant” LR tests (LLR > 1.92) for testing the null hypothesis of no hotspot, the second column shows the median estimate of λ, and the third column shows the median of Embedded Image . Each number is based on results for 200 simulated data sets.