TABLE 3

Simulation results illustrating the effects of the parameters ρ and θ on having and observing recombination in short fragments

ρ
310.50.10.050.01
Actual recombination events ≥1
9990947480352925168046
Detectable recombination events ≥1
θ = 767633401186444222048
θ = 662703057171238118638
θ = 557252667152732716233
θ = 448682202117124911928
θ = 3396517338661828522
θ = 2268710735481086210
θ = 1112043021135157
θ = 0.5410156641041
θ = 0.11773101
  • For each value of ρ, 10,000 realizations of the ancestral recombination graph for n = 20 were generated, and it was noted whether recombination had taken place in each. To each graph, infinite-sites mutations were then added, once for each value of θ, and it was noted whether four gametes could be detected or not. For example, the probability that a genealogy of n = 20 fragments contains recombination events is 8035/10,000 = 0.80 if ρ= 0.5 for the fragment. However, the probability that such a sample contains a detectable recombination event is only 1864/10,000 = 0.19 if θ = 7 and 211/10,000 = 0.02 if θ= 1.