TABLE 2

Posterior estimates for various levels of genetic differentiation and low gene flow

FST
Factors included0.010.050.100.25
None0.4440.1060.0560.028
G10.1220.0720.0550.030
G20.2910.3010.1220.073
Formula and Formula0.0750.3230.5210.638
With interaction0.0680.1970.2460.231
Estimate/RMSE/95% HPDI
ParameterTrue value0.010.050.100.25
α1−0.900a−0.858−1.122−1.010
0.1230.1010.015
(−1.984; 0.263)(−2.091; −0.191)(−1.723; −0.321)
α21.100a1.4031.3141.173
0.1270.0710.008
(0.197; 2.687)(0.387; 2.279)(0.473; 1.886)
σ20.4860.5130.4520.352
(0.131; 3.067)(0.125; 4.117)(0.120; 3.090)(0.110; 1.956)
Assignments0.010.050.100.25
Misassignments0.8080.1340.0460.002
Probabilitiesb0.2880.8470.9460.997
  • Posterior model probabilities, regression parameter mean estimates, and assignment accuracy for synthetic data generated with proportions of nonmigrant alleles set to mii = 0.90 are shown.

  • a The corresponding regression parameter is not included in the model with the highest posterior model probability.

  • b Maximum posterior assignment probabilities averaged across all individuals.