TABLE 5

Comparison of models with observed summary statistics

Time of BNa
ModelθbfT0YearsVar(S)Mean DVar(D)Mean HVar(H)
Observed42.0−0.081.40−1.198.21
SNM1.518.7−0.020.760.011.34
<0.010.23<0.01<0.01<0.01
BN13.82.60.0052,85031.20.461.37−0.944.90
0.06<0.010.380.090.04
BN23.82.50.0105,70031.20.331.38−0.924.73
0.09<0.010.450.080.04
BN33.82.30.0158,55031.10.191.39−0.915.22
0.07<0.010.460.030.05
BN43.82.20.02011,40029.80.091.38−0.844.65
0.04<0.010.430.020.07
BN53.82.10.02514,25030.8−0.011.36−0.794.65
0.030.180.350.020.06
  • All simulations had an average S = 5.0, obtained by fitting f, the size of the bottlenecked population relative to its duration. The summary statistics are the median of 100 mean values in simulations of 204 loci each. The numbers in italics are the proportion of times that the observed value, or one more extreme, resulted from a simulation. D, Tajima's D (1989); H, Fay and Wu's H (2000); S, number of segregating sites.

  • a Time of the beginning of the bottleneck, expressed in units of 4Ne generations (T0) or in years, based on assumptions explained in text.

  • b Average 4Neμ over 204 loci.