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Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape

Yoann Anciaux, Luis-Miguel Chevin, Ophélie Ronce and Guillaume Martin
Genetics Early online March 13, 2018; https://doi.org/10.1534/genetics.118.300908
Yoann Anciaux
Université de Montpellier
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Luis-Miguel Chevin
Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier
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Ophélie Ronce
Université de Montpellier
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Guillaume Martin
Université de Montpellier
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Abstract

Evolutionary rescue describes a situation where adaptive evolution prevents the extinction of a population facing a stressing environment. Models of evolutionary rescue could in principle be used to predict the level of stress beyond which extinction becomes likely for species of conservation concern, or conversely the treatment levels most likely to limit the emergence of resistant pests or pathogens. Stress levels are known to affect both the rate of population decline (demographic effect) and the speed of adaptation (evolutionary effect), but the latter aspect has received less attention. Here, we address this issue using Fisher's Geometric Model of adaptation. In this model, the fitness effects of mutations depend both on the genotype and the environment in which they arise. In particular, the model introduces a dependence between the level of stress, the proportion of rescue mutants, and their costs before the onset of stress. We obtain analytic results under a strong-selection-weak-mutation regime, which we compare to simulations. We show that the effect of the environment on evolutionary rescue can be summarized into a single composite parameter quantifying the effective stress level, which is amenable to empirical measurement. We describe a narrow characteristic stress window over which the rescue probability drops from very likely to very unlikely as the level of stress increases. This drop is sharper than in previous models, as a result of the decreasing proportion of stress-resistant mutations as stress increases. We discuss how to test these predictions with rescue experiments across gradients of stress.

  • antibiotic resistance
  • evolutionary rescue
  • Fisher's Geometric Model
  • fitness landscape
  • mutation
  • Received December 4, 2017.
  • Accepted March 12, 2018.
  • Copyright © 2018, Genetics
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Volume 208 Issue 4, April 2018

Genetics: 208 (4)

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Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape

Yoann Anciaux, Luis-Miguel Chevin, Ophélie Ronce and Guillaume Martin
Genetics Early online March 13, 2018; https://doi.org/10.1534/genetics.118.300908
Yoann Anciaux
Université de Montpellier
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
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  • For correspondence: yoann.anciaux@umontpellier.fr
Luis-Miguel Chevin
Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier
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Ophélie Ronce
Université de Montpellier
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Guillaume Martin
Université de Montpellier
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Citation

Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape

Yoann Anciaux, Luis-Miguel Chevin, Ophélie Ronce and Guillaume Martin
Genetics Early online March 13, 2018; https://doi.org/10.1534/genetics.118.300908
Yoann Anciaux
Université de Montpellier
  • Find this author on Google Scholar
  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
  • For correspondence: yoann.anciaux@umontpellier.fr
Luis-Miguel Chevin
Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier
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  • Find this author on PubMed
  • Search for this author on this site
Ophélie Ronce
Université de Montpellier
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Guillaume Martin
Université de Montpellier
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