Abstract
It is shown that partial selffertilization can be introduced into neutral population genetic models with recombination as a simple change in the scaling of the parameters. This means that statistical and computational methods that have been developed under the assumption of random mating can be used without modification, provided the appropriate parameter changes are made. An important prediction is that all forms of linkage disequilibrium will be more extensive in selfing species. The implications of this are discussed.
THE tremendous advances in methods of polymorphism detection, especially directly at the sequence level, are in the process of rejuvenating population genetics (Chakravarti 1999). To fully take advantage of the flood of polymorphism data, it is clear that new models and methods of analysis are needed. In particular, there is a need for theory that incorporates recombination, so that phenomena such as linkage disequilibrium can be investigated. Although multilocus models have a long history, most of this work concerns small numbers of loci, whereas sequences, in which each base can be seen as a locus, consist of very large numbers of loci. Indeed it can be argued that the current focus on linkage disequilibrium in the sense of a measure of correlation between pairs of loci is a relic of classical twolocus models.
Furthermore, to be useful in analyzing data, theory must be formulated in an appropriate statistical framework. Many wellknown results in population genetics are expectations over evolutionary realizations, whereas data typically reflect a single such realization (Donnelly 1996). Models based on gene genealogies, in particular the neutral coalescent, have played an important role in developing theory suitable for analyzing data (Hudson 1990; Donnelly and Tavaré 1995), and, although the standard coalescent does not include recombination, it can readily be generalized to do so (Hudson 1983).
Classical frequencybased models tend to be limited to small numbers of loci to keep the dimensionality of the model manageable. For the same reason, random mating, in the sense of random union of gametes, is usually assumed. This makes it possible to describe the model in terms of gamete frequencies rather than genotype frequencies, thus avoiding the complications of diploidy (Ewens 1979). The standard coalescent has usually also been studied in what is essentially a haploid setting, but it has recently been shown that diploidy and nonrandom mating can be incorporated with surprising ease (Nordborg and Donnelly 1997; Möhle 1998). In this article, I show that a similar, strikingly simple result holds for the more general class of genealogical models that allow recombination, and I discuss the implications of this for the analysis and utilization of polymorphism data.
RESULTS
I first review how the standard coalescent has been extended to allow recombination and selfing separately, and then show how both may be included simultaneously. The discussion of recombination is based on the “ancestral recombination graph” described by Griffiths and Marjoram (1997), but the results apply equally well to the alternative formulations of Hudson (1983) or Wiuf and Hein (1999). The coalescent with selfing is described in Nordborg and Donnelly (1997), and a more formal treatment is given in Möhle (1998).
Recombination: The standard coalescent is based on the simple argument that, looking backward in time, each gene copy can be seen as “picking” its parent randomly from among the copies that were present in the preceding generation (note that this requires neutrality). Thus lineages can be traced back in time: whenever two lineages pick the same parent, a coalescence event occurs, and the number of lineages is reduced by one, until eventually a single lineage, the most recent common ancestor (MRCA), is found. Recombination is readily introduced into this framework: looking backward in time, a recombination event in a given lineage simply means that that lineage splits into two separate lineages, one being ancestral for the segment to the left of the breakpoint, the other being ancestral for the segment to the right of the breakpoint (Figure 1).
More formally, consider n chromosomal segments of length r M, sampled from a large diploid of size N monoecious (hermaphroditic) individuals. The population is assumed to evolve in discrete time according to the neutral WrightFisher model, but the standard diffusion (continuous) time scaling is employed, i.e., time is measured in units of 2N generations, while N → ∞. When this is done, each pair of lineages can be shown to coalesce at rate 1, so that, in the absence of recombination, the total number of ancestral lineages decreases back in time as a pure death process with rate k(k − 1)/2, where k = n, n − 1, …, 1. However, with recombination, the number of lineages may also increase (cf. Figure 1). Letting R be the scaled recombination rate, obtained by holding R = 4Nr fixed as N → ∞, each ancestral lineage undergoes recombination at rate R/2, so that the total number of lineages increases at rate kR/2. Because the coalescence (death) rate is quadratic and the recombination (birth) rate is linear, the process is guaranteed to coalesce to a single lineage, the “ultimate” MRCA, in finite time. However, the genealogy at each point is described by an embedded standard coalescent, and every single point may well have coalesced to its MRCA before the ultimate MRCA is reached.
Selfing: The simplest way to think of a diploid population of size N is as a haploid population of size 2N subdivided into N islands of size 2. If time is rescaled in units of 2N generations as described above, then, looking backward in time, each pair of lineages “coalesces” into the same island at rate 2. Whenever this happens, there are two possibilities: either the two lineages pick the same of the two available parents, or they pick different ones. The former event, which occurs with probability 1/2, results in a real coalescence, whereas the latter event, which also occurs with probability 1/2, simply results in the two lineages temporarily occupying the same island. If the population is outcrossing (random mating), two lineages currently on the same island pick their islands in the preceding generation independently of each other, just like lineages occupying different islands. Real coalescences thus occur at rate 2 × 1/2 = 1 for each pair, as in the standard coalescent.
However, if the population is partially selfing, so that a fraction s of all zygotes are produced through selffertilization and a fraction 1 − s through outcrossing, then two lineages currently on the same island (i.e., in the same individual) do not pick islands in the preceding generation independently of each other. Instead, with probability s, they automatically pick the same island, and with probability 1 − s, they pick islands independently of each other. If they pick the same island, the probability is again 1/2 that they pick the same parent and coalesce and 1/2 that they pick different ones and remain distinct. Continuing back in time, it is easy to see that two lineages starting on the same island will, in a small number of generations, either coalesce or end up picking islands independently of each other. The former event occurs with probability
Thus, the coalescent with partial selfing looks like the standard coalescent, but with a rate of coalescence that is 1 + F times faster. Alternatively, if time is rescaled in units of 2N/(1 + F) generations (the socalled “effective population size”; cf. Pollak 1987), the process looks exactly like the standard coalescent. The latter formulation has the important consequence that all statistical and computational methods that have been developed for the standard coalescent can be used without modification by simply rescaling the mutation parameter. For example, a computer simulation written to generate random samples with a certain mutation rate Θ from an outcrossing population can also generate equivalent samples from a partially selfing one by simply replacing Θ with an “effective mutation rate” Θ_{s} ≡ Θ/(1 + F).
Note that, with selfing, consideration needs to be given to whether both copies are sampled from each diploid individual or not, because, as we have seen, pairs within the same individual instantaneously coalesce with probability F. This corresponds to the wellknown increase in the frequency of homozygotes in partial selfers and is easily taken into account (Nordborg and Donnelly 1997).
Recombination and selfing: Given the two separate processes, the behavior of the coalescent with both recombination and selfing can be understood with just a single additional insight. As illustrated in Figure 1, a recombination event has absolutely no effect on the genealogical graph if the two pieces containing the break point coalesce with each other before either of them coalesces with another lineage (Hudson and Kaplan 1985). It is evident from Figure 1 that this is not an unlikely event for small samples; in fact, the probability that a given break is eventually “healed” by coalescence in this manner can be shown to be
These results correspond to the classical “forward” intuition that recombination will be less effective in eliminating linkage disequilibrium in selfing organisms because more individuals are homozygotes. Indeed, Golding and Strobeck (1980) showed that the results hold for the expectation of various squared pairwise linkage disequilibria in a twolocus infinitealleles model. The present results thus confirm and considerably extend their results. Related arguments have also been used to derive an “effective recombination rate” in the context of strain evolution in malaria parasites (Dye and Williams 1997).
Because of the confusion about “effective population size” in population genetics, it is worth emphasizing the generality of the results. Introducing the “effective” rates of mutations and recombination, Θ_{s} and R_{s}, respectively, does not merely cause the expectation of some functional to behave as in the outcrossing model; rather, it causes the full coalescent process to behave identically (for a more rigorous formulation, see Möhle 1998). By the close relationship between coalescent and diffusion processes, the results should also hold for relevant diffusion models (e.g., Ethier and Griffiths 1991).
SIMULATED EXAMPLES
I use standard Monte Carlo simulation methods to illustrate the implications of the results. The principle behind the simulation is simple: generate a random graph according to the chosen recombination model, then “drop” mutations onto the graph according to the chosen mutation model at rate Θ/2 along the branches. I have assumed that both types of events occur at points picked uniformly from a real interval. This corresponds to the classical infinitesites mutation model (Kimura 1969); by analogy, it is natural to refer to the recombination model used here as “infinitesites.” The assumptions may be reasonable for DNA sequences, because the probability of an event per generation per base pair is very low. However, it should be emphasized that the ideas developed in this article are quite general and allow a wide range of models (some mutation models are discussed in Donnelly and Tavaré 1995).
Figures 2 and 3 show summary statistics for two samples generated with the same per base pair mutation and recombination parameters but assuming either outcrossing (Figure 2) or 95% selfing (Figure 3). I have furthermore assumed that the per base pair rates of recombination and mutationρ and θ, respectively, are equal. This is of course not true generally, and will certainly vary greatly between genomic regions, but a onetoone ratio nonetheless seems to be reasonable for both Drosophila (Hudson 1987) and humans (Clarket al. 1998). Because the model is formulated in terms of the total rate parameters Θ and R, it is also necessary to decide what these parameters mean in terms of actual physical distances. The number of base pairs corresponding to a certain total mutation rate Θ is of course Θ/θ. In the examples, I have assumed θ = 0.01, which is approximately correct for Drosophila, but probably an order of magnitude too large for humans (Li 1997). However, the simulated samples could equally well be thought of as originating from organisms more like humans than like Drosophila if one were to multiply the scale on the axes representing physical distance in Figures 2 and 3 by a factor of 10 and divide the estimates of θ by another factor of 10.
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DISCUSSION
Effects on the level of polymorphism: Consider first the estimates of θ, shown in the top plots of Figures 2 and 3. These estimates are commonly thought of as measures of the “level of polymorphism.” The expectation of the estimators is θ = 0.01 in Figure 2 and θ_{s} = θ/(1 + F) ≈ 0.005 in Figure 3: an almost twofold difference. However, the estimates in this pair of samples do not differ nearly as much: indeed, for part of the sequence, θ is estimated to be higher in the selfer than in the outcrosser. It is important to realize that this is not unusual. Estimators of θ are well known to have extremely large variances, mostly due to the randomness of the underlying genealogy. With respect to this “historical” or “evolutionary” variance, a population sample from a single nonrecombining locus is essentially a sample of size one (Donnelly and Tavaré 1995; Donnelly 1996). Recombination improves the estimates, because it breaks the sample up into different genealogical trees (the graphs underlying the data in Figures 2 and 3 consisted of 144 and 9 distinct trees, respectively), but these trees are still strongly correlated (Pluzhnikov and Donnelly 1996).
The predicted difference between comparable selfing and outcrossing species is thus impossible to detect without data from many loci and is likely to be often obscured by other demographic factors in any case. The fact that samples from selfers often seem to yield considerably smaller estimates of θ is probably best explained through founder effects and/or selection at linked loci (Cummings and Clegg 1998; Liuet al. 1999).
Effects on linkage disequilibrium: Consider next the correlations between the genealogical trees along the chromosome. The bottom plots of Figures 2 and 3 show the pattern of linkage disequilibrium between all pairs of polymorphic sites as a function of their probability under Fisher's exact test. While the relationship between the pairwise linkage disequilibrium coefficient and correlations in tree topologies is not understood, it is clear that both decrease with recombinational distance. The patterns of pairwise linkage disequilibrium differ strikingly between the outcrossing and selfing sample: in the former, strong linkage disequilibrium is essentially only in evidence within distances of <500 bp, and it completely vanishes over the entire 4kb region, whereas in the latter, no decay with distance is evident within the 4kb region. In contrast to the pattern discussed above, this difference between outcrossing and highly selfing samples is to be expected (M. Nordborg, unpublished simulation results). That this should be so is perhaps not surprising in light of the fact that whereas the effective mutation rate is reduced from 40 to 21 (a factor of almost 2), the effective recombination rate is reduced from 40 to 2 (a factor of 20). Available data from outcrossing (e.g., Clarket al. 1998; Longet al. 1998) and highly selfing (reviewed in Cummings and Clegg 1998; Liuet al. 1999) organisms are in general agreement with this predicted difference in the decay of linkage disequilibrium.
Given that linkage disequilibrium seems to vanish over a scale of 500 bp in Figure 2 but shows little sign of vanishing over 4 kb in Figure 3, it is worth asking over what scale it would vanish in the latter case. A rough answer can be obtained by noting that, in Figure 2, 500 bp correspond to R = 5, and that, in Figure 3, R_{s} = 5 corresponds to R = 100, which in turn corresponds to 10 kb. Linkage disequilibrium would thus vanish over a scale of 10 kb for the parameters in Figure 3. This ignores the fact that the number of polymorphic sites would also change, which affects the power to detect linkage disequilibrium.
The relevance and number of trees: Another, quite illuminating, way of thinking of the effects of selfing on linkage disequilibrium is to consider the underlying graph as given and then interpret it for different rates of selfing by rescaling the mutation rate. Figure 4 shows a particular simulated graph for a sample of n = 5 segments, with R = 2. The graph consists of four embedded trees. In general, the expected number of embedded trees will increase with R and n, but the distribution is not known: Griffiths and Marjoram (1997) show that the expected logarithm of the number of trees is asymptotic to R(log 2)(log n) as n → ∞; an expression for the expected number of recombination events that affects the graph can be found in Hudson and Kaplan (1985); and expressions for the expected numbers affecting the graph in different ways have also been obtained (C. Wiuf, personal communication). In any case, four trees is not an abnormal number for n = 5, R = 2.
Imagine first that the graph in Figure 4 comes from a species with the “Drosophila” parameters used in Figure 2. Then R = 2 corresponds to a physical distance of 200 bp, and mutations should be added with Θ = 2. In other words, the expected number of segregating sites in the sample would only be approximately four, and there is obviously no hope of ever reconstructing the four embedded trees. In a very practical sense, the data have no tree structure.
If we instead assume the “human” parameters described above, then R = 2 would correspond to 2 kb; however, there would still only be an average of four segregating sites. Thus each tree would correspond to a larger chromosomal region, but there would still not be enough polymorphism to reconstruct them.
To increase the power to infer the underlying genealogical graph, the ratio between the mutation and recombination rates needs to be increased. This cannot be done by simply changing the population size, because it appears in both numerator and denominator. It can be done by changing the mating system, however, because
The relevance of the recombination model: The example just presented calls into question whether the recombination model is appropriate for outcrossing organisms with large population size. Like most models of recombination in population genetics, the one used here assumes that recombination is a point event and that the probability of such an event between two points decreases linearly to zero as the distance between the points decreases to zero. Yet it is well known that recombination is mechanistically tied to gene conversion. Ignoring this is reasonable when modeling distances large enough for the effects of gene conversion to be negligible (Andolfatto and Nordborg 1998). However, the average gene conversion tract in Drosophila seems to be on the order of 300 bp, and the graph in Figure 4 has four different trees within 200 bp.
Similarly, it is worth questioning whether the assumption that the probability of recombination is independent of the actual sequence is reasonable for such small distances. Many types of recombination heterogeneity pose no problem from a mathematical point of view, but the lack of data to guide the modeling does.
Implications for linkage disequilibrium mapping:There is currently tremendous interest in using linkage disequilibrium to map genes. The results presented here might seem to indicate that this would not be possible in outcrossing organisms, because linkage disequilibrium is only expected between extremely tightly linked sites. Yet linkage disequilibrium has been used repeatedly to map human diseases. At least part of the explanation lies in the fact that the linkage disequilibrium plotted in Figures 2 and 3 is unconditional, between random polymorphisms, whereas the human disease cases have invariably utilized association between markers and a given site that is known to be rare, thus young, so that significant traces of its ancestral haplotype still persist. It remains to be seen whether linkage disequilibrium mapping will work more generally; the pattern of linkage disequilibrium surrounding older, more frequent mutations could well look more like the patterns above (Kruglyak 1999). The present results do suggest that linkage disequilibrium mapping may, in some circumstances, work much better in partially selfing species like Arabidopsis, rice, barley, or Plasmodium falciparum (Conwayet al. 1999) than in outcrossing ones like humans or Drosophila.
Estimating the selfing rate: Milligan (1996) suggested that sequence data could be used to estimate the longterm mating system, essentially by comparing estimates of θ within and between individuals. Nordborg and Donnelly (1997) showed that this suggestion was incorrect; almost all the information utilized by the proposed estimators comes from the increased frequency of homozygotes, which reflects only the mating pattern of the last couple of generations. However, the model used ignored recombination, and it is obvious from comparing Figures 2 and 3 that there is information about the selfing rate in the pattern of linkage disequilibrium. This pattern does reflect the longterm mating system as linkage disequilibrium builds up and decays slowly. From Equation 1 we see that a rough estimate of the longterm mating system can be obtained by simply dividing an estimate
The power of coalescence arguments: Finally, the results of this article strikingly demonstrate the potential power of coalescence arguments. To study recombination in a classical diffusion setting, a minimum of three dimensions are needed even if random mating is assumed. With partial selfing, the minimum dimensionality is increased to nine. The results of Golding and Strobeck (1980) were obtained using a system of 16 identity coefficients and a considerable amount of algebra. Mutation models appropriate for modern data require infinitedimensional, measurevalued diffusion processes (Ethier and Griffiths 1987). In contrast, by looking backward in time, a general result becomes obvious.
Acknowledgments
I thank Bengt Bengtsson, Deborah Charlesworth, Andy Clark, Peter Donnelly, Bob Griffiths, Carsten Wiuf, and two anonymous reviewers for comments on the manuscript. This work was supported by the Swedish Natural Sciences Research Council (NFR Grant BAA/BU 12026) and by the Erik PhilipSörensen Foundation.
APPENDIX
We seek the probability that a given recombination break is “healed” by coalescence, as depicted in the righthand graph of Figure 1. Note first that the fate of the break depends only on the genealogy at the break point; other recombination events are irrelevant. Suppose the recombination event occurred while there were l lineages ancestral to this point. Then the break is healed by coalescence if and only if the two recombinants coalesce with each other before either coalesces with one of the remaining l − 1 lineages. The probability of this can be shown to be (2/3)l^{−1} (Saunderset al. 1984; Wiuf and Donnelly 1999). The probability that the recombination event happened while there were l lineages, given that it did happen, is shown by Griffiths and Marjoram (1997) to be
Footnotes

Communicating editor: A. G. Clark
 Received March 26, 1999.
 Accepted October 11, 1999.
 Copyright © 2000 by the Genetics Society of America