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doi:10.1534/genetics.104.034199
A more recent version of this article appeared on May 1, 2005.
REGULAR RESEARCH PAPERS |
Bayesian estimation of recent migration rates after a spatial expansion
Grant Hamilton 1, Mathias Currat 1, Nicolas Ray 1, Gerald Heckel 1, Mark Ashton Beaumont 2 and Laurent Excoffier 1*
1 University of Bern
2 University of Reading
* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: laurent.excoffier{at}zoo.unibe.ch.
Submitted on August 1, 2004
Revised on October 22, 2004
Accepted on 17 January 2005
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a 2 dimensional stepping stone model, using samples from either a single deme or from multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred less than 10 kyr ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.
Key Words: Approximate Bayesian Computation, Coalescent model, Parameter estimation, Range expansion, Vole
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