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Theoretical Basis of the Beavis Effect
Shizhong Xuaa Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, California 92521
Corresponding author: Shizhong Xu
| ABSTRACT |
|---|
The core of statistical inference is based on both hypothesis testing and estimation. The use of inferential statistics for QTL identification thus includes estimation of genetic effects and statistical tests. Typically, QTL are reported only when the test statistics reach a predetermined critical value. Therefore, the estimated effects of detected QTL are actually sampled from a truncated distribution. As a result, the expectations of detected QTL effects are biased upward. In a simulation study, William D. Beavis showed that the average estimates of phenotypic variances associated with correctly identified QTL were greatly overestimated if only 100 progeny were evaluated, slightly overestimated if 500 progeny were evaluated, and fairly close to the actual magnitude when 1000 progeny were evaluated. This phenomenon has subsequently been called the Beavis effect. Understanding the theoretical basis of the Beavis effect will help interpret QTL mapping results and improve success of marker-assisted selection. This study provides a statistical explanation for the Beavis effect. The theoretical prediction agrees well with the observations reported in Beavis's original simulation study. Application of the theory to meta-analysis of QTL mapping is discussed.
THE primary goal of genetic mapping experiments is to identify the locations of genes that affect variable expression of a trait among individuals. Most researchers also use the data from a sampled population to estimate the genetic effects of quantitative trait loci (QTL). Information about the magnitude of the genetic effects of significant QTL is useful in prioritizing subsequent uses of the loci as candidate genes for consideration in genetic engineering and marker-assisted selection (![]()
![]()
Almost all QTL mapping procedures can detect QTL with large effects, but not all can detect QTL with intermediate and small effects. Quantitative traits are defined as traits controlled primarily by intermediate and small QTL. ![]()
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Estimating the number of quantitative trait loci is another goal of QTL mapping experiments (![]()
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| STATISTICAL THEORY |
|---|
Marker analysis:
The theory is developed using a backcross (BC) mating design, which provides the simplest genetic model in QTL mapping. The result is then extended to other progeny derived from common mating designs. Let yj be the phenotypic value of a quantitative trait measured from individual j sampled from a BC population. The linear model describing yj is
![]() |
(1) |
where µ is the population mean, a is the additive genetic effect at the locus of interest, and
j is the residual error, which is assumed to follow a normal distribution, N(0,
2). In the BC progeny, there are only two possible genotypes at the QTL, heterozygote and homozygote for the backcross parent allele. The independent variable xj is an indicator variable defined as xj = 0 for the homozygote and xj = 1 for the heterozygote.
Let â be the estimated genetic effect and
2â be the variance of the estimate for a QTL. For simplicity, let us assume that the QTL is closely linked to a marker so that
![]() |
(2) |
where n is the sample size (the number of BC progeny) and
![]() |
(3) |
is the sampling variance of the genotype. Note that n may be replaced by n - 1 for a more precise result.
The variance of x depends on the type of progeny. In a BC population without segregation distortion, half of the individuals will be homozygous and half heterozygous, leading to
in the limit of large n. We have implicitly made the assumption that there is no dominance effect. If there is dominance, it will be confounded with the additive effect; i.e., the genetic effect is actually a + d instead of a. Therefore, all subsequent analyses are based on the additive model.
If the positions of all QTL are known a priori (uncensored), the estimate of each QTL effect is approximately unbiased (depending on the method used) so that the distribution of â can be assumed to be approximately normal, i.e., N(a,
2â). The normal distribution is mathematically convenient because it allows the standard statistical machinery for censored/truncated data to be used (![]()
In the practice of QTL mapping, estimated genetic effects are reported only for significant QTL. Thus, the reported QTL consists of a censored sample so that the distribution of the estimated QTL effects conditional on statistical significance is a truncated normal distribution with a mean and variance different from those of the original normal distribution.
I now proceed to calculate this truncated distribution. Let us assume that a z-test statistic is used for the significance test so that the critical value for the z-test statistic is defined as Z1-
/2, where
is a controlled type I error rate. A QTL is reported only if |z| > Z1-
/2, where z = â/
â is the z-test statistic. In other words, all the QTL reported satisfy |â| >
âZ1-
/2, i.e., â < -
âZ1-
/2 or â >
âZ1-
/2. The two-tailed test leads to the possibility that even if a is positive, it may be detected as a significantly negative effect due to sampling. Denote the truncated â by âT so that âT
NT(aT,
2âT), where NT represents a truncated normal distribution, aT = E(âT) is the expectation, and
2âT = Var(âT) is the variance of the truncated normal distribution. The truncated normal distribution is not symmetric. Let us define the two truncation points in the standardized (z-test statistic) scale as
![]() |
(4) |
and
![]() |
(5) |
Further define
![]() |
(6) |
where
(
) and
(
) are the standardized normal probability density function (pdf) and cumulative distribution function (cdf), respectively.
Often, when using likelihood methods, the LOD score criterion may be used for QTL detection. The critical value of the LOD score can be converted into the critical value of the z-test statistic, using the following approximate relationship,
![]() |
(7) |
where
21,1-
is the critical value of the chi-square distribution with 1 d.f. and is also the critical value for the likelihood-ratio test statistic. The relationship between the likelihood-ratio test statistic and LOD can be found in ![]()
According to the standard statistical machinery of truncated normal distributions
![]() |
(8) |
(![]()
![]() |
(9) |
The variance of the truncated sample is
![]() |
(10) |
This truncated variance is used later when we discuss the bias in the QTL variance estimate.
The phenotypic variance may be partitioned into the true QTL variance (
2G) and the residual variance (
2). The genetic variance of a QTL in a BC population is
2G = a2/4. The corresponding variance in an F2 population is
2G = a2/2. In general, the genetic variance can be expressed as
, where
is a constant depending on the filial relationship among segregating progeny; e.g.,
= 1/2 for BC and
= 1/2 for F2. Therefore, a commonly used approach to estimating the genetic variance is
. However, this estimation is also biased because
![]() |
(11) |
where
![]() |
(12) |
Therefore, the bias in the estimated variance is
![]() |
(13) |
Note that there are two sources of bias: the contribution of environmental variance to the estimate of a2 given by [n
2x]-1
2 plus the Beavis effect given by [n
2x]-1
2 (
'2
2 -
'1
1). Thus, this estimator is biased even in the absence of the Beavis effect. The bias due to the first source of error has been investigated by ![]()
The one-tailed test is a special case of the two-tailed test in that we simply set
1 = -
and
1 = 0. For the two-tailed test, we can further simplify B into
[1 + (
2
1 -
1
2)] due to
and
. We did not present this simplified version of B as a general formula because it would not allow us to extend the results simply to the one-tailed test.
The proportion of phenotypic variance explained by the QTL is defined as
![]() |
(14) |
where
is the total phenotypic variance among the test progeny. The h2Q notation is adopted from classical quantitative genetics and is known as the heritability. When used as a proportion of variance contributed by an individual QTL, it is no longer called the heritability. The typical estimator for h2Q is
. It is hard to find the expectation of a ratio. However, if we assume that the estimation error of the denominator is negligible, we can take
. This assumption is justified for many quantitative traits because the phenotypic variance is usually accurately estimated. On the basis of this assumption, we get
![]() |
(15) |
Letting
, the bias of the genetic variance can be rewritten as
![]() |
(16) |
which leads to
![]() |
(17) |
Therefore, the proportion of the phenotypic variance associated with the QTL also is biased. Note that the term (
'2
2 -
'1
1) in Equation 17 involves the genetic effect, which can be expressed using (14) as
![]() |
(18) |
If we substitute Equation 18 into Equation 4 and Equation 5,
cancels out from (
'2
2 -
'1
1). Therefore, the bias given in Equation 17 is only a function of h2Q and the parameters associated with the sampled progeny.
We now extend the results to other types of progeny. For simplicity, we assume that dominance is absent. In an F2 population, there are three possible genotypes whose genotypic values are defined as a for the homozygote with the "high allele," 0 for the heterozygote, and -a for the homozygote with the "low allele." The linear model given in Equation 1 applies here in the F2 population except that the x variable is now defined as xj = 1, 0, -1 for the three genotypes, respectively. Without segregation distortion, the variance of x in an F2 population is
. Therefore, the results derived above apply here with
in BC progeny replaced by
in F2 progeny.
The method also can be applied to double-haploid (DH) and recombinant inbred line (RIL) populations. In both DH and RIL, the heterozygous genotype is absent. The x variable is defined as xj = 1 for one homozygote and xj = -1 for the other homozygote. The two types of homozygote have an equal frequency, and thus
in both DH and RIL. The results derived above apply by substituting
in the BC by
in the DH and RIL.
Note that
2x and
are identical for all types of progeny if a marker provides a fully informative genotype for the QTL. Different notation is used because there can be differences when the QTL is not tightly linked to a marker.
Interval mapping:
In interval mapping, a QTL may be identified at an intermediate position between markers by inferring the genotype of the QTL from flanking marker information. This will affect both the parameter estimates and the statistical tests of inference. We need to substitute the variance of x by the variance of the estimated x, denoted by
2
. This variance depends on the relative position of the QTL within the interval. The explicit expression is tedious, but numerical values may be computed conveniently. For example, in a BC population, there are four possible marker classes, and the estimated x is denoted by
j = E(xj|m1j, m2j) = pj(1), where m1j and m2j indicate the flanking marker genotypes and pj(1) = Pr(xj = 1|m1j, m2j). Let Pr(m1j, m2j) be the joint probability of the flanking marker genotype. These values are given in Table 1, where r1 and r2 are the recombination fractions between the QTL and the two markers, respectively, and r is the recombination between the two markers. From this table, we can calculate
2
using
![]() |
(19) |
Note that when
2
is used in place of
2x, the assumption of a normal distribution for â may be less valid.
|
The method used to derive
2
implicitly assumes that the least-squares method (![]()
2
is considered as an approximation.
For a DH population, we define
j in a slightly different way (see Table 2) but still use (19) to calculate
2
. For RIL, we use the same table (Table 2), but replace r1, r2, and r by c1, c2, and c, where c = 2r/(1 + 2r) (![]()
|
In an F2 population, there are nine flanking marker genotypic classes. The definitions of
j's and their probabilities for the nine classes are given in Table 3. The same formula (Equation 19) is used to calculate
2
except that the summation is taken over nine categories. For example, if the QTL position is in the middle of a 20-cM interval, we have r1 = r2 = 0.0906 and r = 0.1648, leading to
. Fig 1 shows the relationship between
2
and the position of the QTL in the 20-cM interval flanked by two fully informative markers. Note, as the QTL position approaches a marker,
2
approaches 1/2.
|
|
| NUMERICAL EVALUATION |
|---|
Bias was evaluated numerically by considering the following factors: the sample size, the genetic effect measured by h2Q, and the LOD score criterion. In evaluating the bias of QTL effects, the residual variance was set at unity, i.e.,
2 = 1.0. If the actual residual variance is not unity, one can always standardize the genetic effect using a/
in place of a.
The numerical evaluation was conducted only in BC populations because the general trends are similar for all types of progeny (data not shown). In addition, only a one-tailed test was evaluated. The one-tailed test is a special case of the two-tailed test with
1 = -
and
1 = 0. The functional relationships between the size of the detected QTL and the true sizes are shown in Fig 2. The diagonal lines in the first column of Fig 2 represent the case where aT = a and those in the second column represent the case where
, which holds only when the sample size is infinitely large. With finite sample sizes, the curves deviate from this straight line and the deviation increases as the sample size decreases. The deviation also increases as the LOD criterion increases. The deviation is negligible when
(corresponding to a/
= 0.2), even if the sample size is as small as n = 50. Assume that the commonly used LOD criterion is 3 and the sample size is 200; the bias is within 7% of the true value as long as h2Q
0.10. The bias becomes more severe, however, for small detectable QTL. This observation is consistent with that observed by ![]()
and n = 50, the bias in
2Q is as high as 0.18 for LOD = 2 and 0.33 for LOD = 5.
|
The functional relationships between
2Q and the sample size under various LOD criteria and h2Q are shown in the right column of Fig 3. The corresponding plots for the effects are given in the left column. When n
200 and h2Q
0.10, all the biases are negligible (within 10% of the true value), regardless of the LOD criterion. For small h2Q, a large sample size, even as large as n = 500, is not sufficient to eliminate the bias, again consistent with results of the Beavis experiment (![]()
|
If the average estimated
2Q is 0.14 among all the experiments surveyed where the average sample size is
100 and the average LOD criterion is
3, the true h2Q may actually be zero (found from the second panel from the top of the right column of Fig 2). If
2Q is 0.15 (just a slight increase), however, the true h2Q is
0.08. If
, the true h2Q is about the same as
2Q; i.e., very small bias is expected. From these graphs or using Equation 17, one can find the true h2Q retrospectively from
2Q for all other settings.
We now use the parameter values of the Beavis experiment to compare the biases with those observed by ![]()
as the estimated variance of x, where 0.5 is the variance when the QTL is completely linked with a marker and 0.4 is the variance when the QTL is exactly in the middle of the interval. The agreements between the observed and the predicted biases, judged by the differences between the two, are quite good except when the sample size is small (n = 100). However, the percentage differences, (observed-predicted)/predicted, show an opposite trend with >8% discrepancies in the variance observed only when n = 1000. The percentage difference may be misleading, however, as the predicted effects become smaller and more sensitive to error with increasing sample size and because, ultimately, one is interested in the absolute error made in inferring the effects of QTL. The large absolute deviations of the predicted biases from the observed values for small sample size may be explained as follows. The critical value of LOD = 2.5 was used by Beavis for a test statistic involving both the additive and dominance effects. Our prediction, however, was based on a test statistic for additive effects only. For small samples, some QTL were detected due to large estimated dominance effects, even though the dominance was absent in the simulations (see Table 10.5 of ![]()
![]()
500). This was because for large samples, the LOD score test statistic was determined primarily by the additive effect. The 2-d.f. LOD score and 1-d.f. LOD score were virtually identical.
|
|
| DISCUSSION |
|---|
The Beavis effect describes a phenomenon that occurred in the Beavis experiment where all QTL were simulated to have the same effect and distributed independently throughout the genome. The average effect of the detected QTL was biased upward due to censoring. It is more likely that QTL effects vary across the genome and the distribution of the QTL effects may be described by a negative exponential distribution (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
Using the Beavis effect to interpret results of a meta-analysis of QTL mapping is more straightforward. If a QTL mapping experiment can be repeated many times, the average effect of a chromosome location calculated only from the significant replicates will definitely be biased unless this QTL is detected in all replicates. If one considers incorporating a particular marker into a marker-assisted selection program for an economically important quantitative trait, the Beavis effect will affect the decision. The investigator may decide to search the literature to see how much genetic variance is accounted for by this marker from all published experiments.
The theory developed here helps predict the potential bias in the estimated effect of QTL. The theory may also be used to correct the bias but should be used with caution. Let
be the average of the QTL effect estimated from N replicated experiments. To correct the bias, we may simply substitute the expectation given in Equation 17 by the observed average,
![]() |
(20) |
and solve for h2Q to obtain the unbiased estimate of h2Q. The equation is highly nonlinear, but the solution can be easily solved numerically. Unfortunately, the solution is very sensitive to the sample size (n). It works only when n is sufficiently large, say n
500. For a single experiment, we have only one estimate and the above equation becomes
![]() |
(21) |
The solution is even more sensitive to n. Therefore, the theoretical prediction of the Beavis effect may not be used retrospectively to correct for the bias when the sample size is small. The correction is necessary when the estimate is obtained by summarizing the results of many experiments. In that case, we should incorporate not only the mean of the estimates but also the variance of these estimates. The optimal method is the maximum-likelihood method that treats the estimates of the multiple experiments as censored data and infers (or recovers) the parameter of the uncensored data (![]()
The theory developed herein applies to segregating populations with two alternative genotypes. For populations with more than two alternative genotypes, e.g., F2, the model is restricted to either the additive or the dominance model but not both. This is because the test statistic utilized is the z-test statistic, which is a 1-d.f. test. Further investigation is necessary to predict the biases in both the additive and dominance effects using a 2-d.f. test. Similar extensions can be made for a test with >2 d.f., e.g., four-way crosses (![]()
![]()
The variance of the genotype indicator (x) determines the estimation error of the QTL effect and thus plays an important role in the Beavis effect. When the QTL under investigation is tightly linked to a fully informative marker,
2x is a constant depending on the filial relationships among progeny. If the marker is not fully informative, e.g., a certain percentage of individuals have missing genotypes at the marker, the variance
2x will decrease and this information loss will have the same ultimate effect as increasing the interval between markers when the QTL is not at the marker. We use
2x conditional on not only the type of progeny but also the marker information content and the QTL position. This conditional variance is denoted by
2
and it is used whenever the QTL genotype is not directly observable.
The theory of the Beavis effect is derived on the basis of a single QTL model. However, it applies approximately to multiple QTL experiments, as shown in the Beavis experiment where multiple QTL were actually simulated (Table 4 and Table 5). When we predict the bias, the residual variance includes the environmental variance plus the sum of the variances of the remaining QTL excluding the one in question. For example, when we predicted the bias for the QTL explaining 3% of the phenotypic variance, the residual variance was chosen as 100 - 3 = 97, where 100 is the total phenotypic variance. If the data were analyzed by a multiple-QTL model, e.g., composite interval mapping (![]()
![]()
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
|---|
The author thanks Dr. Chenwu Xu for his help in the simulating experiment. The author also appreciates editor S. Otto and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions on the manuscript. This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health grant R01-GM55321 and the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program 00-35300-9245.
Manuscript received November 11, 2002; Accepted for publication August 26, 2003.
| LITERATURE CITED |
|---|
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0) becomes worse but the probability of detecting such a QTL becomes much smaller (not shown). Note that in the Beavis experiment, LOD = 2.5 and n = 100, 500, 1000.




