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Bayesian Analysis of Genetic Differentiation Between Populations
Jukka Corandera, Patrik Waldmannb, and Mikko J. Sillanpääaa Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, FIN-00014, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
b Department of Biology, FIN-90014, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
Corresponding author: Mikko J. Sillanpää, Research Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 4, FIN-00014, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland., mjs{at}rolf.helsinki.fi (E-mail)
Communicating editor: J. B. WALSH
| ABSTRACT |
|---|
We introduce a Bayesian method for estimating hidden population substructure using multilocus molecular markers and geographical information provided by the sampling design. The joint posterior distribution of the substructure and allele frequencies of the respective populations is available in an analytical form when the number of populations is small, whereas an approximation based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approach can be obtained for a moderate or large number of populations. Using the joint posterior distribution, posteriors can also be derived for any evolutionary population parameters, such as the traditional fixation indices. A major advantage compared to most earlier methods is that the number of populations is treated here as an unknown parameter. What is traditionally considered as two genetically distinct populations, either recently founded or connected by considerable gene flow, is here considered as one panmictic population with a certain probability based on marker data and prior information. Analyses of previously published data on the Moroccan argan tree (Argania spinosa) and of simulated data sets suggest that our method is capable of estimating a population substructure, while not artificially enforcing a substructure when it does not exist. The software (BAPS) used for the computations is freely available from http://www.rni.helsinki.fi/~mjs.
ONE of the inevitable consequences of genetic drift is that gene frequencies diverge between populations of a common origin when migration and mutation rates are low. In evolutionary science, a lot of effort has therefore been devoted to the development and empirical application of statistical methods for estimation of the degree of population differentiation using molecular marker data. A majority of studies have used statistical measures derived from Wright's F-statistics (![]()
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Natural animal and plant populations typically have a nested substructure with respect to their hierarchical spatial pattern, such as sites within riverbeds, riverbeds within a river, or rivers within a river basin (![]()
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The posterior distribution of the population substructure and population-specific parameters also enables the estimation and uncertainty assessment for any related quantities that might be of interest, such as the F-statistics familiar to most evolutionary biologists. Our method is applicable to several types of codominant markers [e.g., allozymes, single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and microsatellites], on the basis of assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) and linkage equilibrium between loci within each observed population. We also discuss possible extensions of the methodology to higher-dimensional hierarchies and an alternative way of handling the situation where the HWE assumption seems empirically unjustified.
The proposed Bayesian model is described in the following section, whereas the computational details are given in the Appendix. Investigation of genetic separation among populations is considered thereafter. To illustrate the methodology we use the Moroccan argan tree (Argania spinosa) data from ![]()
| BAYESIAN MODELING OF ALLELE FREQUENCIES IN A GEOGRAPHICALLY STRUCTURED POPULATION |
|---|
We consider a sampling design where individuals are gathered from NP distinct populations on the basis of available prior knowledge concerning their geographical separation. Assume that genotypes are observed at NL independent (unlinked) marker loci, where at each locus j there are NA(j) possible alleles to be distinguished. To be adequate sources of information about population substructure, these markers should be neutral and their mutation frequency should be reasonably low. Furthermore, the unlinked genetic markers are assumed to be in HWE within each observed population.
Since the true underlying population substructure is unknown, the number of populations with differing allele frequencies is treated here as a parameter
P, having the range of reasonable values [1, NP], where the upper bound is directly given by the sampling design. At locus j, the unobserved probability of observing allele Ajk (allele frequency) in population i is represented by pijk [i = 1, ... ,
P; j = 1, ... , NL; k = 1, ... , NA(j)]. To simplify the notation,
is used as a generic symbol jointly for the allele frequencies (
i for population i), and similarly n represents jointly the observed marker allele counts nijk. Missing alleles are simply ignored among observations, since they do not contribute in the model under HWE assumption. Note here that pijk depends on
P, and consequently, nijk may be a sum of several allele counts calculated from the original populations. The partition of the original populations can be represented by a NP x NP population structure parameter matrix S, with elements defined as

where m and r take values in the range [1, NP]. The joint distribution of the observed marker allele counts and the model parameters is specified by
![]() |
(1) |
where
(n|
,
P, S)

Pi=1
NLj=1
NA(j)k=1pnijkijk is the multinomial likelihood,
(
|
P, S) = 
Pi=1
NLj=1
NA(j)k=1
(pijk) is the prior density of
, and
(S|
P)
(
P) is the joint prior of the structure parameters. When the allele frequencies of two populations are equal, their observed counts in n can be summed together in the likelihood. It is worth noting that under the assumptions of HWE and linkage equilibrium the above model arises naturally from the basic modeling principles of the Bayesian framework; see, e.g., ![]()
In a multinomial setting, a common choice as a prior
(
|
P, S) for the allele frequencies (see ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
) distribution with hyperparameter vector
, where each element
k represents the prior mass on the allele k (at some arbitrary locus). As a reference assumption we prefer an invariant noninformative prior with
ijk = 1/NA(j), which can be interpreted to relatively contain as much information as a likelihood with a single observation. This particular prior was also suggested in ![]()
(S|
P)
(
P) is a uniform distribution in the finite space of distinct values of (
P, S). A strategy enabling joint estimation of the parameters (
,
P, S) in model (1) is described in the Appendix, and the given noninformative priors are used in all subsequently reported analyses of real and simulated data.
| MEASURING OF GENETIC SEPARATION AMONG POPULATIONS |
|---|
A wide diversity of evolutionary measures of population differentiation is available in the genetic literature (see ![]()
![]()
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![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
Given the posterior of the allele frequencies and population structure (
,
P, S), it is possible to derive the posterior distribution also for any function of these parameters, such as the familiar F-statistic FST (in examples we have used the formula given in ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]() |
(2) |
which can be calculated by summing the posterior probabilities of such partitions where the two populations (m and r) are merged together (see the Appendix). However, when the amount of data increases, differences can be detected on a finer scale. Consequently, it may be that the posterior probability (2) approaches zero, although the allele distributions are rather close to each other in some metric. In addition to the probability (2), one can technically measure the discrepancy between allele distributions of two populations over different loci by using the Kullback-Leibler divergence (![]()
![]()
![]()
| EXAMPLE ANALYSES |
|---|
Real data:
To illustrate the proposed methodology, we used the Moroccan argan tree (A. spinosa) data from ![]()
![]()
The original data consist of allele measurements at 12 isozyme loci (two to five alleles) for 12 different populations with 2050 individuals in each. We use the same abbreviated notation for the population names as ![]()
![]()
Simulated data:
In addition to the example analysis with real data, we applied our approach also to data sets that were simulated from population models with or without substructure. This enables investigation of whether one has a sufficient probability of detecting differences among allele frequencies while still maintaining a low probability of imposing a structure artificially, when such does not exist. From a theoretical point of view it is clear that the given Bayesian model will a priori support the simplest partition with no separation of populations, since the conditional distribution of the marker frequencies has then the smallest possible number of parameters.
We simulated data sets from distributions with 10 different alleles, some of which were considerably rare. In the first setting alleles were generated for a single locus with frequencies [0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.015, 0.015, 0.01, 0.005, 0.005]. Samples of 10, 20, and 50 diploid individuals from this single population were then randomly assigned into five different populations. An analogous setting with the same allele frequencies was also used to generate observations from five independent loci simultaneously. In the second scheme alleles were generated from two populations with different allele frequencies, one having the frequencies in the previous example and one with frequencies [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05, 0.05]. The same sample sizes and numbers of loci (one and five) as in the first scheme were used. All sampling configurations were replicated 10,000 times and the posterior distributions were analytically calculated for each replicate.
Results, real data:
From the posterior of structure S based on the real data (see Table 1), samples from populations Mijji (MI), Sidi Ifni (SI), and Tensif (TE) are all considered to originate from a single population with probability 0.999. Furthermore, given the abbreviations Argana (AR), Tizint'est (TT), and Ademine (AD), population samples in pairs (AR, TT) and (AD, AR) are considered to have equal origins with probabilities 0.874 and 0.093, respectively. All the remaining combinations of populations are estimated to have corresponding probability equal to zero. For comparison the posterior mean of FST equals 0.273 (95% credible interval being [0.251, 0.296]). Fig 1 shows the posterior density of FST and Fig 2 illustrates the rapid convergence of the particular chain with respect to
P in a form of cumulative occupancy probabilities. The posterior estimate of FST is rather distinct from the value obtained in ![]()
![]()
![]()
|
|
|
To investigate sensitivity and the effects of individual loci, we reanalyzed the data using only a single locus at a time. In Table 2, only counts of loci for which the pairwise posterior probabilities P(
m =
r|n) for populations (m and r) that exceed 0.75 are shown. It can be seen that most populations have concordant allele frequencies at many loci; however, concordant loci vary among the populations.
|
The estimated posterior means of Kullback-Leibler divergences are used in a three-dimensional multidimensional scaling plot of the populations (Fig 3) to visualize their distinction from each other. The estimated distances among populations MI, SI, and TE are equal to zero, and therefore, the population labels are overlapping in the plot. The populations Beni-Snassen (BS) and Oued Grou (OG) seem to locate far from the other populations, which is in concordance with the results of ![]()
![]()
|
Results, simulated data:
For the simulated data sets lacking population substructure, results are summarized in Fig 4. Histograms in the figure show the empirical distribution (over replications) in different settings for the posterior probability of the event that any two populations are equal. The panels correspond to the case with one locus only; for data sets with five loci the posterior probability was equal to unity for all replicates. The analysis illustrates clearly that our method will support merging of populations if the data do not provide enough evidence against the similarity hypothesis. Results for the configurations where the underlying structure consists of two distinct populations are presented in Fig 5, analogously to the previous example. As expected, the empirical power to detect the correct underlying structure increases with the sample size.
|
|
| DISCUSSION |
|---|
We have presented a Bayesian method for estimating hidden population substructure using multilocus molecular markers. Underlying model assumptions concerning HWE and linkage equilibrium within the populations imply that each individual contributes two independent alleles to the likelihood at each locus. To check the validity of these assumptions, one may use, for instance, the methods introduced in ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
When the aim of modeling the marker data is investigation of neutral evolution, one should bear in mind the assumption of a relatively slow rate of mutation of the alleles. In this respect conclusions with respect to differentiation are most well suited for allozymes and SNPs on low-mutating genome regions. One should be more careful concerning inferences about genetic drift when using microsatellite alleles, since they fluctuate more randomly over generations.
We have here concentrated on utilization of the geographical information available in a two-level hierarchy, since it corresponds to commonly used sampling designs. Occasionally, sampling designs may enable the use of information even from higher-dimensional hierarchies (typically, at three levels). Such designs can be taken into account by defining the hyperparameters in the prior as random coefficients depending on some parameter indexing the nested population substructure (cf. ![]()
The general Bayesian approach applied here is very flexible, and it would be valuable to incorporate information from phenotypes, different mutation models, spatial distances, and demographic parameters in the future. In conclusion, we have shown that the Bayesian model is a powerful tool for inference about the genetic population structure. However, as the simulation results with an underlying population structure illustrate, one cannot expect to obtain conclusive evidence for separation among populations when the numbers of sampled individuals and loci are small, unless the observed allele frequencies are considerably different. This feature represents common sense in statistical inference and protects against exaggerated interpretations concerning differences caused by random fluctuations in allele frequencies over generations.
Our analysis shows the favorable feature of combining information from several loci into a single probability model, as opposed to the simple averaging used in a traditional FST analysis. One special advantage of the proposed MCMC sampling scheme is that tuning problems related to the choice of proposal and prior distributions seem to be minimized. This reflects the positive effect of analytically integrating out relative allele frequency parameters from the posterior expression of the structure. A major advantage of the approach as a whole compared to most earlier methods is that the number of populations is treated here as an unknown parameter. Hence, we can avoid the labeling problems of populations that occur with high levels of gene flow. In other words, what is considered as two genetically distinct populations, either recently founded or connected by considerable gene flow, would be considered as one panmictic population with a certain probability in our approach.
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
|---|
The authors thank two anonymous referees whose suggestions and comments significantly improved the original manuscript. This work was supported by research grant nos. 52457 and 47201 from the Academy of Finland and by the Centre of Population Genetic Analyses, University of Oulu, Finland.
Manuscript received September 6, 2002; Accepted for publication October 4, 2002.
| APPENDIX |
|---|
ESTIMATION OF MODEL PARAMETERS
To enable Bayesian inference jointly about parameters (
,
P, S) in general, the standard Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm (e.g., ![]()
P, S) to be calculated by complete enumeration, such that the marginal likelihood of a particular partition value (
P, S) is divided by the sum of marginal likelihoods over all possible partitions. Conditional on this distribution, one can generate a suitable number of independent posterior realizations of
explicitly (see below).
The number of distinct values of S (i.e., partitions of the finite set {1, ... , NP}) equals the sum
NP
P=1
NP
P, where
NP
P is the Stirling number of the second kind (see, e.g., ![]()
10 (where
NP
P=1
NP
P
115,975), to allow for enumerative calculations. For larger NP we use an MCMC algorithm to generate samples from the posterior distribution of (
,
P, S) with two distinct move types: (1) randomly split a population into two distinct parts or merge two different populations into a single one and (2) update allele frequencies
with Gibbs sampling conditional on the data and the current value of parameters (
P, S). Since the model is specified at the population level, split and merge moves are restrictively proposed only within the range of populations that were present in the original sampling configuration.
In typical applications the value NP is small enough (say, at most 3050) so that the time required for the convergence of the MCMC approach is presumably acceptable for practical purposes. In ![]()
![]()
The posterior distribution of the population structure is proportional to the analytically calculated integral (see ![]()
![]() |
(A1) |
where
(·) is the gamma function.
The acceptance ratio for the Metropolis-Hastings step, where current populations given in (
P, S) are split or merged to form a proposal (
*P, S*), equals
![]() |
(A2) |
where q(·|·) is the conditional probability of proposing a population substructure from a given one, calculated explicitly at each iteration. The proposed structures are generated uniformly from the set of possible splits or mergings at a given configuration. The prior ratio of the structure parameters equals one for all possible values and cancels therefore from (A2).
Given the previously specified priors, the full conditional distribution of
is a product of Dirichlet distributions, given by
![]() |
(A3) |
from which values can be drawn explicitly. Note that the full conditional distribution given a specific partition remains unchanged during the simulation. In many analyses the used prior gives an equal mass to all alleles, although it would also be possible to incorporate knowledge from previous studies into
. In the approach presented we prefer the theoretically derived reference choice of
ijk = 1/NA(j), which was also used in ![]()
![]()
![]()
ijk lead to a prior containing a substantial amount of information when the number of alleles is large. Only the suggested prior has the property of containing as much information as a likelihood with a single observation regardless of the number of alleles, which makes it a reasonable reference choice.
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