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Estimation of Deleterious Genomic Mutation Parameters in Natural Populations by Accounting for Variable Mutation Effects Across Loci
Hong-Wen Denga,b, Guimin Gaoa, and Jin-Long Lica Osteoporosis Research Center and Department of Biological Sciences, Creighton University, Omaha, Nebraska 68131,
b Laboratory of Molecular and Statistical Genetics, College of Life Sciences, Hunan Normal University, ChangSha, Hunan 410081, People's Republic of China
c Center for Medical Informatics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8009
Corresponding author: Hong-Wen Deng, Creighton University, 601 N. 30th St., STE. 6787, Omaha, NE 68131., deng{at}creighton.edu (E-mail)
Communicating editor: Z-B. ZENG
| ABSTRACT |
|---|
The genomes of all organisms are subject to continuous bombardment of deleterious genomic mutations (DGM). Our ability to accurately estimate various parameters of DGM has profound significance in population and evolutionary genetics. The Deng-Lynch method can estimate the parameters of DGM in natural selfing and outcrossing populations. This method assumes constant fitness effects of DGM and hence is biased under variable fitness effects of DGM. Here, we develop a statistical method to estimate DGM parameters by considering variable mutation effects across loci. Under variable mutation effects, the mean fitness and genetic variance for fitness of parental and progeny generations across selfing/outcrossing in outcrossing/selfing populations and the covariance between mean fitness of parents and that of their progeny are functions of DGM parameters: the genomic mutation rate U, average homozygous effect
, average dominance coefficient
, and covariance of selection and dominance coefficients cov(h, s). The DGM parameters can be estimated by the algorithms we developed herein, which may yield improved estimation of DGM parameters over the Deng-Lynch method as demonstrated by our simulation studies. Importantly, this method is the first one to characterize cov(h, s) for DGM.
THE genomes of all organisms are subject to deleterious genomic mutations (DGM) continuously. In spite of our increasing knowledge of the molecular underpinnings of mutations, little is known about the overall risk exerted on human health and on continuing survivability of other organisms (especially rare and endangered species) by DGM (![]()
![]()
![]()
), the mean dominance coefficient (
), and the covariance of dominance and selection coefficients of DGM [cov(h, s)]. Estimation of these parameters is also important for testing the validity of a number of evolutionary theories in genetics (![]()
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Despite the extreme importance of our knowledge of deleterious mutation parameters, few estimates are available (![]()
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As with almost all the other estimation methods (except a maximum-likelihood estimation method for mutation-accumulation experiments; ![]()
![]()
In this article, we present a method for estimating DGM parameters accounting for variable effects across loci in natural outcrossing or selfing populations at M-S balance. We investigate the statistical properties (bias and sampling variance) of this new method, using computer simulations in comparison with the Deng-Lynch method (![]()
![]()
| THEORY |
|---|
The assumptions are the same as those of the Morton-Charlesworth method (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
In this study, we consider variable mutation effects in the development of an estimation method for DGM parameters in natural populations. Under variable mutation effects across loci, homozygous effect s for mutations is a random variable between 0 and 1. We assume that, for a mutation, dominance coefficients h and s are functionally related so that h = h(s). This assumption is supported by the limited data and theory (![]()
![]()
![]()
denote the kth interval, and define the probability

When T is sufficiently large, s and h are approximately constant within each interval but are variable across various intervals. Let Uk denote the mutation rate corresponding to mutations with an effect s falling into the interval Ik, and then Uk = Upk.
With the assumptions we have, in outcrossing populations, the number of mutant alleles with mutation effects s falling into an interval Ik within an individual (all in the heterozygous state; ![]()
![]()
![]() |
(1a) |
(![]()
![]()
![]() |
(1b) |
Outcrossing populations:
We illustrate our experimental design and estimation method by using populations capable of selfing. The method may be extended to outcrossing populations where selfing is not feasible as in the Deng-Lynch method (![]()
o and
s be the mean fitness in the parental and offspring generations, respectively,
2o the genetic variance of fitness in the parental generation,
2t the total genetic variance of fitness in the selfed progeny generation,
2s the genetic variance of the mean fitness of selfed progeny in selfing families, and cov(wp, ws) the covariance between the fitness of a parent (wp) and the mean fitness of its selfed progeny (ws). Under the above assumption for mutation effects that are variable across various intervals at different loci, as in ![]()
![]() |
(2) |
![]() |
(3) |
![]() |
(4) |
![]() |
(5) |
![]() |
(6) |
![]() |
(7) |
where the parameters with overbars denote arithmetic mean properties of new DGM parameters,
is the harmonic mean dominance coefficient of new mutations, and Wmax is the expected fitness of a mutation-free genotype in an environment where fitness measurements are taken. Wmax serves as a scaling factor so that the fitness measurement can be on any scale instead of just from 0.0 to 1.0 and also so that mean environmental effects of experiments do not influence estimation (![]()
Among Equation 2Equation 3Equation 4Equation 5Equation 6Equation 7, there are only five independent equations containing six unknown parameters. By assuming one of the six parameters known in the estimation, estimators of the other parameters can be derived. This is the strategy employed in the likelihood characterization of DGM parameters when variable mutation effects are considered in estimation (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
,
, and
is known, similar estimation procedures can be derived for U and the rest of the other parameters.
can be estimated by methods such as that of ![]()
,
, and
and as
![]() |
(8) |
where
![]() |
(9) |
From these estimates, other composite parameters of DGM, such as the mean number of mutations per genome
, mutational variance Vm per generation, and mean mutation effects on fitness U
, can be derived (![]()
![]() |
(10) |
This is because for any distribution,
. Let
, where cov(h, s) denotes an upper bound of cov(h, s). This offers us the first opportunity to quantify the magnitude and the sign of cov(h, s). It would be impossible to come up with analytical estimators for DGM parameters such as cov(h, s) if in the analytical derivation, variable mutation effects are not considered. This is simply because these parameters such as cov(h, s) would be zero and meaningless in an analytical estimation developed under constant mutation effects.
Selfing populations:
Random pairs of highly selfing and homozygous parental genotypes (denoted as P generation) are crossed to obtain outcrossed progeny (denoted as F1 generation). Let
p and
2p be the mean fitness and genetic variance of fitness in the P generation, respectively,
F1 and
2F1 be the mean fitness and genetic variance of fitness in the F1 generation, respectively, and cov(
, F1) be the covariance between the mean fitness of the two parents and the fitness of their F1 progeny. Under variable mutation effects across loci, the fitness moments are related to the DGM parameters as follows:
![]() |
(11) |
![]() |
(12) |
![]() |
(13) |
![]() |
(14) |
![]() |
(15) |
It should be noted that the derivation for Equation 2Equation 3 HREF="#FD4">Equation 4Equation 5Equation 6Equation 7 and Equation 11Equation 12 HREF="#FD13">Equation 13Equation 14Equation 15 assumes mutation effects that are variable. The strategy is to divide the range of variable selection coefficient s (from zero to one) into infinitely small intervals so that s can be treated as constant within each of the intervals but varying across intervals in our analytical derivation. Again, there are six unknowns (U,
,
,
,
, and Wmax) in the above five equations. By assuming or estimating one of the six parameters, estimators of the other five parameters can be derived. Here, as earlier for outcrossing populations, we assume that U is known in the estimation for illustration. Alternatively, an initial value of U may be estimated from other approaches (![]()
![]()
,
, and
,
![]() |
(16) |
where
![]() |
(17) |
In selfing populations, we can use Equation 10 to estimate cov(h, s) by the above estimates of
,
, and
, which are unbiased under variable mutation effects with a known correct U. The estimators for
and
when assuming U is known are the same as those in ![]()
The above estimation developed herein does not assume any specific functional relationship between s and h and any specific distribution form for the selection coefficient s. Therefore, the estimates are robust to different unknown forms of the distribution of s and the functional relationship between s and h. This is true despite that we assume specific distributions of s and a functional relationship between s and h in the following simulation studies to investigate the statistical properties of our estimation.
| SIMULATIONS AND RESULTS |
|---|
As with ![]()

where
.
and ß are the scale and shape parameters, respectively.
. As in ![]()
, where A = 13, which is in rough accordance with the few available data (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
,
,
, and cov(h, s) can be derived as

These DGM parameters can be used for comparison to examine the estimated values with our estimation methods in simulations.
The simulation procedures are the same as those that have been documented extensively earlier (![]()
![]()
![]()

It can be shown that

and when ß = 0.5,

where
. Erf(x) can be approximated as
![]() |
(18) |
(![]()
To evaluate the performance of our estimation in outcrossing populations in simulations, for each set of parameters U,
, and ß, K parents were sampled from the parental generation, and from each of these, M selfed progeny were produced. The fitness of an individual from the parental generation is

where nk is the number of mutation-bearing loci with their effects falling into the interval Ik in an individual, obtained by random sampling from the Poisson distribution defined above. The fitness of each selfed offspring was obtained by allowing the nk heterozygous loci of a parent to segregate randomly into the AA, Aa, and aa genotypes with respective probabilities of 1/4, 1/2, and 1/4. Letting n1k and n2k (k = 1, ... , T) be the numbers of heterozygous and homozygous loci containing mutations with effects falling into the interval Ik in a selfed offspring, the fitness of the selfed progeny is

Unless otherwise specified, for each set of parameters (U,
, ß, K, M), we performed 1000 simulations. We let Wmax = 1 throughout, as the value of Wmax does not influence DGM parameter estimation.
For selfing populations, the fitness of an individual from the parental generation is

where nk is the number of mutation-bearing loci with mutation effects falling into the interval Ik in an individual, and it is obtained by random sampling from the Poisson distribution defined earlier. Each parent mates with another random parent (not in the original set of K) to produce a total of K progeny (one per family) with fitness

where n1k and n2k (k = 1, ... , T) are the numbers of homozygous mutant loci in interval Ik in the two parents, respectively.
In the estimation Equation 8 or Equation 16, U must be known, assumed, or estimated with other approaches first. In simulations, we experimented and examined two methods to estimate U: (1) by the Deng-Lynch method (![]()
, and ß, and obtained the estimates Û1,
1, and
1 by the Deng-Lynch method (![]()
1 under any fixed ß. Through a series of simulations, we obtained samples under various parameter values of U,
, and fixed ß-values, and we obtained estimates Û1 and
1 with the Deng-Lynch method under various fixed ß-values. Then we fit a multiple regression model under each specific ß-value,
![]() |
(19) |
where Û estimates U with little bias when ß is correctly assumed as shown by our simulation results not presented here. The empirical estimation is useful only when the shape parameter ß can be estimated using other methods and experimental data (e.g., ![]()
The simulation results are represented by the data in Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4. The ranges of the values for the parameters (such as U,
, and
) generally cover those reported earlier from classical empirical experiments (e.g., ![]()
![]()
by Equation 8 in outcrossing populations have smaller sampling variance and smaller bias than those obtained directly by the Deng-Lynch method, e.g., by comparison of the estimates in rows 1 and 3 for each parameter set in Table 1. This is true even when no prior assumption is made about the magnitude of U, when U is first estimated directly with the Deng-Lynch method, and then the estimate of U is used in the current estimation method, (Equation 8) for the other DGM parameters. The estimates of
by Equation 8 have smaller or comparable sampling variance than those obtained directly by the Deng-Lynch method for
(for each parameter set, compare the estimates of the second to fourth rows with that of the first row in Table 1). The comparison of the estimation quality between the current estimation method and the Deng-Lynch method changes little with the parameter values (Table 1). When ß = 0.5, the bias of the estimates of the parameters is larger than that when ß = 1 and 2. This may be due to the approximation Equation 18 used to compute
when ß = 0.5, while the computation of
when ß = 1 and 2 is exact.
|
|
|
|
Second, when U is set equal to the estimates (Û1) that were obtained by the Deng-Lynch method (![]()
than for the Deng-Lynch method (Table 1), and the estimates of
,
, cov(h, s) are upwardly biased and estimates of
are downwardly biased. The result can be understood from Equation 8, since Û1 is downwardly biased as estimated by the Deng-Lynch method. In selfing populations, Equation 16 yields the same estimates for
and
as those obtained by the Deng-Lynch method (Table 2), which is expected as pointed out earlier. The estimates of
,
, and cov(h, s) are upwardly biased and estimates of
are downwardly biased because Û1 is downwardly biased, which can be understood from Equation 16.
Third, in outcrossing populations, the cov(h, s) is correctly estimated to be an upper bound of cov(h, s); however, the sign of cov(h, s) can sometimes be estimated to be different from that of cov(h, s). In selfing populations, cov(h, s) can always be estimated with correct sign and small estimation bias.
| ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS |
|---|
In the estimation of the DGM parameters, we need a prior estimate of one of the six parameters (such as U as investigated here) based on some external knowledge obtained from other estimation approaches. The estimation bias of this parameter or the bias of an assumed value will cause estimation bias of the other parameters. Hence, we investigate the sensitivity of estimators to the departures of U from true value, using computer simulations (Fig 1 and Fig 2). We define a relative bias rate (RBR), (estimate - true value)/(true value), to measure the sensitivity of estimators to an incorrectly assumed or estimated U value. In examining the robustness of the estimator for cov(h, s), the true value used is the parameter value of cov(h, s) as defined after Equation 10 and not cov(h, s).
|
|
In simulations for the investigation of the robustness of our current estimation of the other DGM parameters, U is set equal to a given value (denoted as Ugiven), which ranges from 0.5U0 to 1.5U0 (U0 is the true value of U). This range of the estimate of U investigated is reasonable given the magnitude of bias that is normally found with the method such as that of ![]()
= 20] are <0.185 in both outcrossing and selfing populations. For outcrossing populations, when
= 20, if Ugiven
0.9U0 or Ugiven
1.1U0, the absolute values of the MRBR of cov(h, s) are >1.0 (Fig 1B and Fig D). (Note the scale difference of the y-axis in Fig 1B and Fig D, with the other plots in Fig 1 and Fig 2.) Thus, even when U is estimated with some bias, if the magnitude is similar to that obtained by methods such as that of ![]()
is as small as 20). In outcrossing populations, the MRBR changed the sign in the robustness investigation of cov(h, s) when
, respectively. This is because the parameter value cov(h, s) changed the sign from negative to zero and then to positive values under the functions assumed when
changes from 0.047 to 0.048.
| DISCUSSION |
|---|
We have developed a method in this study for considering variable mutation effects across loci in the estimation. The method may yield improved estimation over that of ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
Characterization of cov(h, s) is important, for example, for testing the validity of the dominance hypothesis (![]()
![]()
In the estimation of the DGM parameters, we need a prior estimate of one of the six parameters based on some external knowledge or based on the estimates obtained from alternative approaches or from the same experimental design by using the Deng-Lynch method as demonstrated here. We provided the estimators of the other DGM parameters by using Equation 8 and Equation 16 when assuming that U is known or estimated via other approaches. If we assume that one of the parameters
,
(
), or
is known or estimated from other approaches, estimators of the other DGM parameters can be obtained. Among the parameters,
and
,
(h) can be estimated individually with the analysis methods already developed (![]()
![]()
is assumed or estimated and some representative simulation results.
It can be seen from Equation 1a and Equation 1b that the mean of h for the Charlesworth technique (![]()
, and the mean for the Morton technique (![]()
. This has seldom, if ever, been pointed out because the Morton-Charlesworth technique was derived under constant mutation effects. To our knowledge, there has been no method for estimating either
or
. Our proposed estimation methods here are able to, again for the first time, allow estimates of
and
with relatively small bias under variable mutation effects.
The majority of earlier estimation methods for DGM assume constant mutation effects. The only exception is the maximum-likelihood estimation developed for analyses of mutation-accumulation experiments (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
For our methods that are applicable to natural outcrossing populations and selfing-fertilizing populations, M-S balance is assumed to be the mechanism maintaining variation for fitness. Alternatives to M-S balance, such as functional overdominance or overdominance induced by fluctuating selection, may, in principle, maintain polymorphisms. Most evidence suggests dominance as heterozygous mutation effects and thus is compatible with M-S balance (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
|---|
We are grateful to anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that greatly helped to improve the manuscript. This work is partially supported by grant R01 GM60402-01A1 from National Institutes of Health (NIH). H.W. Deng was also partially supported by grants from Health Future Foundation, NIH K01 grant AR02170-01, NIH R01 grant AR45349-01, grants from State of Nebraska Cancer and Smoking Related Disease Research Program (LB598), Nebraska Tobacco Settlement Fund (LB692), NIH grant P01 DC01813-07, U.S. Department of Energy grant DE-FG03-00ER63000/A00, grants (30025025 and 30170504) from National Science Foundation of China, and grants from HuNan Normal University and the Ministry of Education of China.
Manuscript received April 26, 2002; Accepted for publication August 26, 2002.
| APPENDIX |
|---|
ESTIMATION OF OTHER DGM PARAMETERS WHEN
IS ASSUMED OR ESTIMATED AND SOME REPRESENTATIVE SIMULATION RESULTS
If
(in outcrossing populations) or
(in selfing populations) is known by other estimation methods or assumed at particular values on the basis of some external knowledge, based on Equation 2 HREF="#FD3">Equation 3Equation 4Equation 5Equation 6Equation 7 and Equation 11 HREF="#FD12">Equation 12Equation 13Equation 14Equation 15, we have estimators for other DGM parameters as follows, the notations being the same as in the text, in outcrossing populations,
![]() |
(A1) |
and in selfing populations,
![]() |
(A2) |
Simulations are performed similar to that described in the text and with the above estimation for other DGM parameters when
(in outcrossing populations) or
(in selfing populations) is known or estimated. The simulation and the experimental procedures, when
(in outcrossing populations) and
(in selfing populations) are estimated by the methods of ![]()
![]()
![]()
Some representative results are presented in Table A1 and Table A2. It can be seen that, relative to the Deng-Lynch method, the new method developed here can estimate more parameters, such as cov(h, s) and its sign. In an outcrossing population, the sign of cov(h, s) cannot be reliably estimated. However, in selfing populations, if the
is estimated first by the Deng-Lynch method and then used in the current method, the sign of cov(h, s) can be characterized correctly.
|
|
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