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Originally published as Genetics Published Articles Ahead of Print on February 16, 2005.
Genetics, Vol. 170, 409-417, May 2005, Copyright © 2005
doi:10.1534/genetics.104.034199
Bayesian Estimation of Recent Migration Rates After a Spatial Expansion
Grant Hamilton*,
Mathias Currat*,
,
Nicolas Ray*,,
Gerald Heckel*,
Mark Beaumont
and
Laurent Excoffier*,1
* Computational and Molecular Population Genetics Lab, Zoological Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Genetics and Biometry Laboratory, Department of Anthropology and Ecology, University of Geneva, 1211 Geneva 24, Switzerland
School of Animal and Microbial Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AJ, United Kingdom
1 Corresponding author: Computational and Molecular Population Genetics Lab, Zoological Institute, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
E-mail: laurent.excoffier{at}zoo.unibe.ch
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a highly flexible technique that allows the estimation of parameters under demographic models that are too complex to be handled by full-likelihood methods. We assess the utility of this method to estimate the parameters of range expansion in a two-dimensional stepping-stone model, using samples from either a single deme or multiple demes. A minor modification to the ABC procedure is introduced, which leads to an improvement in the accuracy of estimation. The method is then used to estimate the expansion time and migration rates for five natural common vole populations in Switzerland typed for a sex-linked marker and a nuclear marker. Estimates based on both markers suggest that expansion occurred <10,000 years ago, after the most recent glaciation, and that migration rates are strongly male biased.
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