Likelihoods and Simulation Methods for a Class of Nonneutral Population Genetics Models

Corresponding author: Peter Donnelly, Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, 1 S. Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3TG, United Kingdom., donnelly{at}stats.ox.ac.uk (E-mail)

Communicating editor: S. TAVARÉ

Methods for simulating samples and sample statistics, under mutation-selection-drift equilibrium for a class of nonneutral population genetics models, and for evaluating the likelihood surface, in selection and mutation parameters, are developed and applied for observed data. The methods apply to large populations in settings in which selection is weak, in the sense that selection intensities, like mutation rates, are of the order of the inverse of the population size. General diploid selection is allowed, but the approach is currently restricted to models, such as the infinite alleles model and certain K-models, in which the type of a mutant allele does not depend on the type of its progenitor allele. The simulation methods have considerable advantages over available alternatives. No other methods currently seem practicable for approximating likelihood surfaces.

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