Statistical Approaches to Paternity Analysis in Natural Populations and Applications to the North Atlantic Humpback Whale

Statistical Approaches to Paternity Analysis in Natural Populations and Applications to the North Atlantic Humpback Whale

Rasmus Nielsen^a, David K. Mattila^b, Philip J. Clapham^c, and Per J. Palsbøll^d
^a Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 and Department of Biometrics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-7801,
^b Center for Coastal Studies, Provincetown, Massachusetts 02567,
^c Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543
^d School of Biological Sciences, University of Wales, Gwynedd LL57 2UW, United Kingdom

Corresponding author: Rasmus Nielsen, Department of Biometrics, 439 Warren Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801., rn28{at}cornell.edu (E-mail)

Communicating editor: M. W. FELDMAN

We present a new method for paternity analysis in natural populationsthat is based on genotypic data that can take the sampling fractionof putative parents into account. The method allows paternityassignment to be performed in a decision theoretic framework.Simulations are performed to evaluate the utility and robustnessof the method and to assess how many loci are necessary forreliable paternity inference. In addition we present a methodfor testing hypotheses regarding relative reproductive successof different ecologically or behaviorally defined groups aswell as a new method for estimating the current population sizeof males from genotypic data. This method is an extension ofthe fractional paternity method to the case where only a proportionof all putative fathers have been sampled. It can also be appliedto provide abundance estimates of the number of breeding malesfrom genetic data. Throughout, the methods were applied to genotypicdata collected from North Atlantic humpback whales (Megapteranovaeangliae) to test if the males that appear dominant duringthe mating season have a higher reproductive success than thesubdominant males.

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