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Corresponding author: Albrecht E. Melchinger, Institute of Plant Breeding, Seed Science and Population Genetics, University of Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany., melchinger{at}uni-hohenheim.de (E-mail)
Communicating editor: Z-B. ZENG
ES) and its median (
ES) across all runs. The bias of these estimates was assessed by comparison with the median (TS.ES) obtained from TS. We also used two independent validation samples derived from the same cross for further comparison. The median ES showed a large upward bias compared to TS.ES. Environmental sampling generally had a smaller effect on the bias of ES than genotypic sampling or both factors simultaneously. In independent validation, TS.ES was on average only 50% of ES. A wide range among ES reflected a large sampling error of these estimates. QTL frequency distributions and comparison of estimated QTL effects indicated a low precision of QTL localization and an upward bias in the absolute values of estimated QTL effects from ES. CV with data from three QTL studies reported in the literature yielded similar results as those obtained with maize testcrosses. We therefore recommend CV for obtaining asymptotically unbiased estimates of p and consequently a realistic assessment of the prospects of MAS.
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