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GENE GENEALOGY AND VARIANCE OF INTERPOPULATIONAL NUCLEOTIDE DIFFERENCES
Naoyuki Takahata 1 and Masatoshi Nei 1
1 Center for Demographic and Population Genetics, University
of Texas at Houston, Houston, Texas 77225
A mathematical theory is developed for computing the probability
that m genes sampled from one population (species) and n genes
sampled from another are derived from l genes that existed at the
time of population splitting. The expected time of divergence between the
two most closely related genes sampled from two different populations and
the time of divergence (coalescence) of all genes sampled are studied by using
this theory. It is shown that the time of divergence between the two most
closely related genes can be used as an approximate estimate of the time of
population splitting (T) only when T
t/(2
N) is small, where t and N are the number of generations
and the effective population size, respectively. The variance of Nei and Li's
estimate (d) of the number of net nucleotide differences between
two populations is also studied. It is shown that the standard error (
sd) of d is larger than the mean when T is
small (T << 1). In this case, sd is reduced
considerably by increasing sample size. When T is large (T >
1), however, a large proportion of the variance of d is caused by
stochastic factors, and increase in the sample size does not help to reduce
sd. To reduce the stochastic variance of d, one must
use data from many independent unlinked gene loci.
Accepted on February 8, 1985
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